Arabica coffee falls 6.59% in New York following Brazilian elections
Depreciation of the real and the arrival of the new Brazilian harvest put pressure on international prices.
Arabica coffee futures fell 6.59% over the week on the New York exchange, a decline totaling 2,025 points. According to the Carvalhaes report, the drop occurred amid a sharp depreciation of the Brazilian real following the elections in Brazil, alongside the increasing arrival of the new harvest onto the market.
As the dollar strengthened against the Brazilian currency, traders adjusted their positions on ICE Futures US, leveraging the exchange rate movement to exert downward pressure on coffee prices. During this period, the dollar rose 9.07% against the real, while the Ibovespa index fell 18.12%, according to data cited by *Valor Econômico*.
Arabica contracts
Arabica contracts for December delivery on ICE Futures US fluctuated by 820 points between their high and low on Friday (30), reaching a daily high of $2.9150 per pound—an increase of 605 points. They closed the trading session at $2.872 per pound, up 175 points (0.61%).
On Thursday (29), the contracts fell 130 points (0.45%), and on Wednesday (28), they dropped 700 points (2.39%). Over the course of last week, they saw a cumulative decline of 2,025 points (6.59%), following a gain of 185 points (0.61%) the previous week. They recorded a decline of 3,245 points in the first half of 2026.
Robusta contracts
Robusta contracts for next November on ICE Europe reached a high of US$ 3,224 per tonne on Friday (30), up US$ 47. They closed the trading session at US$ 3,219, an increase of US$ 42 (1.32%). On Thursday (29), they fell by US$ 23 (0.72%). Last week, they saw a decline of US$ 9 (0.28%), and the week before that, a drop of US$ 186 (5.45%). For the month of October, they accumulated a decline of US$ 226 (7.02%).
Certified stocks
Certified Arabica stocks at ICE Futures US remained stable on Friday (30), standing at 225,068 bags. A year ago, they totaled 446,475 bags—a decrease of 221,407 bags over that period. These stocks fell by 2,910 bags last week and by 12,789 bags the week prior. In October, they saw a total decline of 35,586 bags.
They recorded a decline of 158,706 bags in the first six months of 2026. In 2025, stocks certified by ICE Futures US fell by 53.76%, representing a loss of 526,812 bags.
Futures contracts in BRL
In terms of Brazilian reais (BRL) per bag, contracts for next December on ICE Futures US closed at R$ 2,068.60. They closed last Friday (23) at R$ 2,030.22, and the Friday before that (16) at R$ 2,050.75.
Physical market
In the Brazilian physical market, producers sold just enough on a day-to-day basis to meet their immediate obligations—which are substantial at this time of year, as the harvesting and processing of a new crop draw to a close.
Shipments
As of the 30th, October shipments totaled 3,633,754 bags of Arabica, 787,706 bags of Conilon, and 282,136 bags of soluble coffee, amounting to 4,703,596 bags shipped—compared to 3,363,739 bags on the same day in September.
By the 30th, requests for the issuance of certificates of origin for October shipments totaled 5,209,689 bags, compared to 4,072,399 bags on the same day the previous month.