Coffee prices retreat on exchanges, and physical market trading slows down
Election-related uncertainties and price volatility lead Brazilian producers to postpone sales.
Futures contracts for Arabica coffee in New York and Robusta in London closed lower on Friday (23), according to the Carvalhaes report. During the week leading up to the second round of the presidential election, political instability and price volatility prompted coffee growers to reduce sales, keeping trading volume low in the Brazilian physical market.
The US dollar also fell against the Brazilian real in the final trading session before the vote, dropping below R$ 5. According to *Valor Econômico*, traders attributed this movement to election polls, which reportedly led investors to lower the risk premium and adjust their positions.
Arabica contracts
Arabica contracts for delivery this coming December on ICE Futures US fluctuated by 960 points between their high and low on Friday (23), reaching a daily high of US$ 3.1490 per pound an increase of 245 points. They closed the session at US$ 3.0745 per pound, down 500 points (1.60%).
On Thursday (22), they fell 370 points (1.17%), while on Wednesday (21), they rose 485 points (1.56%). Over the course of last week, they saw a net gain of 185 points (0.61%), following a gain of 1,865 points (6.50%) the previous week. They recorded a decline of 3,245 points during the first half of 2026.
Arabica contracts for March 2027 closed at US$ 2.9340 per pound on Friday (23). Over the past week, they fell 110 points (0.37%). Robusta contracts
Robusta contracts for next November on ICE Europe reached a high of US$ 3,409 per tonne on Friday (23), up US$ 121. They closed the trading session at US$ 3,228, down US$ 60 (1.82%). On Thursday (22), they fell by US$ 64 (1.91%). Over the past week, they saw a total decline of US$ 186 (5.45%), following a drop of US$ 56 (1.61%) the week before. For the month of September, they recorded a cumulative decline of US$ 84 (2.44%).
Certified stocks
Certified Arabica stocks on ICE Futures fell by 6,455 bags on Friday (23), bringing the total to 227,978 bags. A year ago, the figure stood at 462,806 bags, representing a decline of 234,828 bags over that period. These stocks decreased by 12,789 bags last week and by 11,239 bags the week prior. In September, they saw an increase of 36,678 bags.
There was a decline of 158,706 bags during the first six months of 2026. In 2025, stocks certified by ICE Futures US fell by 53.76%, amounting to a total loss of 526,812 bags.
Futures contracts in BRL
In terms of Brazilian reais (BRL) per bag, contracts for next December on ICE Futures US closed at R$ 2,030.22. They closed at R$ 2,050.75 on the Friday before last (the 16th), and at R$ 1,892.19 on the Friday prior to that (the 9th).
Physical Market
The volume of closed transactions remains below what is typical for this time of year, as a new harvest enters the market. Sharp daily fluctuations in Arabica contracts on the ICE (Intercontinental Exchange) in the U.S. are hindering the conclusion of a more significant number of deals. Producers are selling only what is necessary on a day-to-day basis to meet immediate obligations which are substantial at this stage, as the harvesting and processing of the new crop draw to a close.
Shipments
As of the 23rd, October shipments totaled 2,632,121 bags of Arabica, 587,323 bags of Conilon, and 213,133 bags of soluble coffee, amounting to 3,432,577 bags shipped compared to 2,572,318 bags by the same date in September. Through the 23rd, requests for the issuance of certificates of origin for October shipments totaled 3,982,409 bags, compared to 3,244,417 bags on the same date the previous month.